Where Has the Excitement Gone? The Fall of the Goals from Open Play
One of the biggest stories of the EPL season so far is the drop of scoring in open play and the way sides are netting more from set-plays as an alternative.
Looking at goal sources to the initial 11 matches last season, we note a drop of 39 scored in open-play and an increase of 26 from team set-pieces and spot-kicks, resulting in 13 less overall.
Examining overall statistics, efforts on goal clubs are making show a remarkable 370 fewer in open-play than this time last season.
Regardless of the significant rise in set-piece goals, we've actually seen just two more attempts created from them excluding penalties, showing the efficiency sides are at discovering methods to convert from dead-ball situations.
Goal Statistics Tell an Interesting Narrative
The 301 goals notched in 110 matches to date averages out at nearly 2.75 goals per fixture, if this persists for the whole season could be the smallest for half a decade, back in 2020-21 (2.69).
But just under 200 goals coming in open-play equates to 1.78 per fixture and is tracking to be the least for 16 years, from 16 years ago (1.76 average).
2009-10 also marks the only Premier League season to see goals scored more frequently from dead-balls without spot-kicks than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 each match (0.79).
Which Sides Account for This Change?
Regarding goals scored from open-play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have experienced the most significant decline, netting only four in 11 games, a reduction of 10 than at this stage last season.
Excluding Wolves, the EPL's fall in open play goals is predominantly a London thing, with half of the capital's seven sides netting a minimum of five fewer goals from open play than last season.
Honestly, this is mainly because them scoring many scores at the beginning of last season rather than them having difficulty to convert in open-play this campaign.
Meanwhile Man City have seen the largest rise, with almost every one of their 23 goals so far coming in open play.
Set-Piece Success
We've compared the promoted teams with those that were relegated that they superseded. Play-off winners Sunderland have recorded three more goals in open-play than Southampton did in matchday 11 en route to relegation the previous campaign.
Regarding goals scored from set-pieces (aside from penalties), the Gunners and Chelsea have experienced the biggest increase, with the two clubs compensating for the reduction of five scores that they've scored in open-play with the same number from set-pieces.
Manchester United have recorded two times more goals from set-plays as they achieved in matchday 11 last season ahead of their coach assumed control, while Sunderland additionally have been more effective at converting than the club they replaced that went down.
Manchester City don't seem to have got the message about increasing scoring from set-pieces, since they've scored three fewer than last season, like Nottingham Forest, though that might be down to the tactical shift they're working to install.
General Tendencies
Six sides – Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, Newcastle, Spurs and the Hammers – represent this term's top trend-setters by scoring fewer scores from open-play and increased from set-pieces, while Manchester City represent the sole team to go against the grain so far by performing the exact opposite.
It will be interesting to see if teams continue to rely so heavily on set-plays as the campaign progresses or if they find again their overall inventiveness and begin scoring more goals in open-play as well.
