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Only two days before the New York race for mayor, Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – going beyond who would win overall, but precinct by precinct. The analyst, a political analyst who grew up in New York City, has spent more than ten years in left-leaning activism and has become something of a well-known figure this year for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and polling.

He released his extremely precise prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He possesses a talent for clever terms. He highlighted, as an example, the split between the progressive stronghold, running from one neighborhood to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the New York Times” in readership and most voters leaned toward the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Patterns and Surprises

What was your election night?

It was necessary because they were adding around 200,000 ballots into the system frequently! I was actually a little nervous initially: Mamdani was ahead the early vote by 12 points, but there were large groups of ballots added after that and his lead dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, it was possible where election day went somewhat badly for Mamdani, in which Cuomo would have essentially doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. However the winner gained half a million votes to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he won. He campaigned and massively expanded his base from the primary.

Expanding Support

How did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and individuals facing cost pressures. He gained considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the earlier election. Additionally he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He created the alliance that the left always wanted to build: multiracial, young, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also some supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?

It is a genuine phenomenon, limited to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Muslims. Electors in ethnic enclaves that supported Trump previously backed the progressive now. But it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Effects

A major development of the night was the record turnout. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Turnout was much greater than I had expected. I thought we might go over 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. Existed a decent anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to get over 50%. He has just over 50% but there’s still probably 200,000 votes uncounted at that time. So it’s not certain, but I think probable, and I hope he does because then no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any area. Not even Tottenville in Staten Island, similar to an 88% Trump area. That really was unexpected. Cuomo held Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and then added many Republicans on the island who had a strong turnout. I think occurred significant strategic balloting by the Republicans. They were doing it before the former president endorsed for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – was support for Mamdani overwhelming in those parts of the boroughs?

I think there was some weakening of the commie corridor in some areas like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. There, instance, the Greek landlords and homeowners supported the independent. Thus there was a little resistance. However no, mostly the leftist base is another huge reason why Zohran won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the election there was coverage on if Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Is there any suggestion that he did?

Exist neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance definitely mattered there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they favored Cuomo. And also, you have Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in the borough, who were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore it’s unclear if there were crazy narrative-busters on this one, but he did hold left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest political leaders from progressives hail from a few areas in the boroughs. I believe that we’ll see more of that – candidates will emerge from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

However I believe that each urban center in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in the nation – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities exist.