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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It frequently acts as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest upset.

Yet this year's race is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions declining and longtime underperformers rising in unison. Under an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a normal season!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still