Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.
Major Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure
A number of figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to avert any future leadership challenge.
The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of sources also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.
